First, a primer. Here are a few breadcrumbs. Several from Wano, one from Enies Lobby. The key points to look out for when reading the scans I’m about to show you:

1.) It’s Wano. They will open the country’s borders. This is a battle to alter the fate of the very world.

2.) Wano has had different names in the past and was a vastly powerful kingdom in the long distant past that everyone wanted it, is very important, and has several ties to the One Piece. Wano is also the home of the Poneglyph creators. Upon learning that Luffy is actually able to liberate it when assuming the combined force of two emperors would be able to rout him, his immediate elimination is ordered.

3.) The unknown Ancient Kingdom was a vastly powerful kingdom in the long distant past, has several ties to the One Piece, and is the home of the Poneglyph creators. Upon learning that Professor Clover knows the name of the Ancient Kingdom, he is immediately shot to prevent him from speaking its name.

So, what are the worst-case scenarios? It is important that we work through this backwards and eliminate things that are unlikely.

Luffy defeating Kaido? On its own, hardly earthshaking. The World Government is prepared for that scenario. The World Government wants that scenario. They want Luffy and Kaido to fight and they will remove whoever wins.

Awakening? Awakening has never changed anything about a devil fruit’s powers (plus, compatibility with Admirals and BlackBeard means incentive to delay for later payoff). Luffy has the false named devil fruit? Unlikely. The government has known about Luffy for ages, and had his fruit in custody. Just because the world at large had no idea about Luffy’s powers doesn’t mean that the Gorosei didn’t just like with Nico Robin’s bounty.

So what is it? The worst case scenario is Luffy defeating Kaido in combination with a few things that we can only have learned about after chapter 1028. What did we learn since then?

1.) Some of One Piece is in the Wano Country which the World Government knows is really the Ancient Kingdom (a theory, but let’s roll with it) from years past.

2.) Zunesha is here, and there is a legendary devil fruit with a false name active in this conflict.

3.) Zunesha is Joyboy’s friend from the Void century.

Now, let’s make a few (admitted leaps) and assume the World Government and us have broadly the same information.

– Luffy could defeat Kaido. Not a big deal. The pirates kill each other.

– Luffy could defeat Kaido, and he is partnering up with the Shogun of Wano, the Ancient Kingdom. That’s fine, we have a fleet to take care of that.

– Luffy is partnering up with the Shogun of Wano, the Ancient Kingdom, and he will defeat Kaido. Also, one of Joyboy’s friends is here blocking the way of our fleet, so we can’t stop him from opening the country’s borders AND bringing the “Dawn” of the world. There is a legendary Devil Fruit user on his side, he can control an army of Sea Kings, Gear 4 level Rukushina Beasts, Fleet busting Zuneshas, Gifters and Headliners, etc because he somehow gives these cowards the will to fight rather than cry and submit. “Straw Hat Luffy” must be eliminated immediately.

Theory by SMichaelson (https://www.reddit.com/user/GSMichaelson)